Several speculations are doing the rounds regarding the possibility of a third wave and if children are at a risk of getting infected in the subsequent wave. There is a lot of misinformation involved; however certain things need to be understood and implemented accurately so that we can look towards a foreseeable post pandemic future become more probable.

Is there really a possibility of a third wave?

UK epidemiologists warn of there being signs that the country is currently in the initial stages of a substantial third wave. In our country as well, the possibility isn’t unlikely especially after having gone through a devastating second wave that led not only to the collapse of our healthcare system, overflowing mortuaries but also unravelled the incompetence of the government to plan better, premature declaration of victory and the failure of the people to act responsibly and follow the mandate. Vaccination drives were not accelerated well enough when the cases were still low and the notice of the government shifted to everything else but the pandemic. All this has certainly fuelled the crises we’re still recovering from.

However worse the prior situation has been, there are always lessons to learn and to become better in dealing with any further catastrophe. In this case, apart from understanding what went wrong leading to the second wave in the country it shouldn’t go unnoticed that we can work towards the prevention of a probable third wave by doing things as simple as wearing a proper mask, maintaining distance, realising what worked for us during the initial days of the pandemic when the cases plummeted and doing exactly that.

The occurrence of a third wave in India relies upon if there will be any further mutations in the current strain. If there is no new variant in the near future, with proper implementation of preventive measures, increased vaccination to achieve herd immunity, we as a nation can become better equipped to contain the virus’s spread. The data suggests that due to mass vaccination, daily cases in the US have dropped to 90% since the January 2021 peak.

“When enough people are vaccinated or when we acquire natural immunity against the infection, then these waves will stop. The only way out is to strictly follow Covid appropriate behaviour,” said Dr.  Guleria, AIIMS Director.

Why do waves occur in a pandemic?

• Respiratory virus

As we have seen in the 1918 Spanish Flu, H1N1 (swine) flu, waves usually occur due to respiratory viruses. The second wave of 1918 Spanish Flu was the biggest, after which there was a smaller third wave. Similarly, SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus.

“Multiple waves occur when there is a susceptible population and when a large part of the population acquires immunity against the infection, the virus becomes endemic and infection becomes seasonal like that of H1N1 that commonly spreads during monsoon or winters,” said Dr. Guleria.

• Mutations

Waves can occur due to new variants as a result of mutation. As new mutations become more infectious, the virus becomes more transmissible and the possibility of its spread increases. Sometimes, these changes in the virus make it more deadly causing severe complications in the patients.

• Human behaviour

After successfully being able to contain the coronavirus outbreak in the first wave, people’s behaviour became relaxed towards following the Covid-19 protocols that helped to break the chain of transmission. As unlocking began, a large number of people discontinued covid appropriate behaviour that eventually lead to the subsequent wave as well as a dramatic increase in the number of cases.

Are children at risk in any subsequent wave?

There is no data, either from India or globally, to show that children will be seriously infected in any subsequent COVID-19 waves, AIIMS, Delhi, Director Dr. Randeep Guleria added.

With a surge in the overall cases in the country, it was likely to see more children getting infected as in some cases the complete families got positive but there is no evidence that shows any sudden spike in children being covid-19 positive.

During the second wave, infected children showed mild to moderate symptoms and only a little percentage of them required hospitalization. The reason for that was found to be some prior illness or weak immunity. As far as symptoms were concerned, they were mostly asymptomatic and in some cases minimal symptoms were seen. Symptoms like shortness of breath, dropping of oxygen levels, etc. are uncommon in children. Moreover, as per experts they are better at neutralizing the virus because of their immune system being able to eliminate the virus before it multiplies and spreads to the other cells.

However, hospitals across the country have started pushing the facilities for pediatric care and formulation of new guidelines to prevent any possible spread.